Broadband Internet Access | THE CABLE PIPELINE

Are you prepared for the Inevitable Mobile Mania Magnification?

By 2014, annual global mobile data traffic will reach 3.6 exabytes per month. Globally, businesses and consumers will be transferring the equivalent of billions of DVDs each month. What’s driving that incredible growth? What does it mean to service providers? Are users worldwide becoming mobile data megalomaniacs? Read on to find out.

Before I get into details, I’d just like to point out that a lot of this data comes from the Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Forecast. A great summary of Cisco VNI research is here, along with a helpful mobile data forecast whitepaper, can be found here.

Video is, well, huge, and getting ginormous

So, what’s going on? Let’s take a look at a key driver of the pending data deluge: Video.

Video is becoming more social and, as a result, getting more use. But, more importantly, it is easier to discover and access than ever. Not just to users with high-speed Internet access, but specifically to users in developing nations without computers but smartphones instead. Not only is the smartphone business booming – as much as a 20.9 compound annual growth rate (CAGR) percent in the years leading up to 2013 (according to a report, “Worldwide Mobile OS 2009-2013 Forecast and Analysis”, by IDC), but consider that, in 2009, one smartphone generated the data equivalent of at least 10 basic phones. By 2014, one smartphone will generate the equivalent of more than 100 basic phones.

Beyond mobile, consider traffic generated in machine-to-machine communications (M2M). How much data will the fridge (and other appliances) of 2014 process and deliver wirelessly? What about asset tracking systems in shipping and manufacturing sectors, medical patient record storage and retrieval, and so on? The latest Cisco VNI figures predict that, by 2014, there will be five billion mobile consumer devices in use and billions more M2M nodes in all sorts of consumer and business/enterprise applications.

Another factor is our changing lifestyle

It wasn’t too long ago that humans would just go to sleep when the sun went down. With the advent of television, a few of us decided to stay up late watching Johnny Carson or Conan O’brien. But now, with the Internet becoming the dominant medium for consuming everything other than your meals – and its ubiquity, and its ease-of-access, humans are changing the way they behave. Research into the habits of information workers indicates that multitasking will add six “network hours” to every day.

Instead of just watching TV, people will browse the Web to learn about a new product they just saw. While paying bills they will watch videos on demand – hopefully educational information helping them to balance their budget, instead of just a cute kitten video. Even while watching a video, users will keep an eye on their RSS feeds to keep abreast of the latest trends…and latest popular videos.

All of this extra network time is compounding the strain service providers will be under in the coming years.

Around the world

Let’s take a deep breath now and ask ourselves: Is my network capable of handling all of that? Is my mobile infrastructure going to crumble under the weight of quintillions of packets? Let’s look at how the various regions of the world will fare in the coming storm. For maximum effect, read the next section in the voice of Arnold Schwarzenegger’s Terminator. For the forecast period 2009 to 2014:

The Middle East and Africa are expected to lead the world with the fastest mobile data growth rate (for regions) at a CAGR of 133% percent. The regional will be followed closely by Asia-Pacific, with a 119% CAGR, followed by North America with a 117% CAGR.
Western Europe will account for nearly 1/3 (30%) of all mobile data traffic by 2014. Asia-Pac will contribute 26% and North America will contribute 22% of global mobile traffic by 2014.
India will blow the rest of the world away with the highest mobile traffic growth rate of 222% CAGR. China will trail with 72% CAGR and South Africa will have a 156% CAGR.

What’s a service provider to do?

Run, hide? Build a fortified compound and wait out the storm? Those are valid courses of action, certainly. There are a multitude of answers available. I’d love to know how you plan to cope, though – what’s your strategy? I’d love to have you sound off in the comments. We’re also talking about this (and other topics) in our community forum on a regular basis, and I’d like to invite you all to join us there sometime, too.

Cisco Introduces Faster Router to Lure Carriers (Update1) (businessweek.com)
Cisco predicts wireless data explosion (news.cnet.com)
Cisco Sees Mobile Data Doubling Annually (blogs.wsj.com)
Cisco set to make major announcement (financialpost.com)

GHTime Code(s): nc nc nc b54ba

The Cable Pipeline: Top 10 Predictions for 2010

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What will 2010 bring for the Cable-Telecom-Wireless Industry’s? Broadband and Wireless will continue an evolution of defining the way we communicate and make decisions that affect our daily lives in significant ways. Relevant companies will struggle to deal with an ever increasing shift of consumer preferences in their business and home information, communication, and entertainment needs.

Here are my Top 10 Predictions for 2010:

The FCC will move to increase regulation of ISP’s as a way to open broadband options for both business and consumers
The Universal Service Fund will be re-directed to increase broadband access to the underserved
The FCC will gain spectrum back from the broadcasting industry to advance Wireless industry initiatives and will continue to grow exponentially in 2010
Consumers will look for economical and alternative ways to connect to the things that are important to them through a broadband global universe, including information, entertainment, education, and health
Cable TV companies will struggle with a dwindling demand for linear programming and the consumers demand for viewing content on their own terms. TV Everywhere will be a success in the short term
Cable-Telecom companies will continue to struggle with customer satisfaction issues and will begin to focus more on this issue as subscribers continue to migrate elsewhere. Companies like Cox Communications will continue to thrive due to a focus on quality engineering and customer service
Demand for access to content on an A-La-Carte basis will gain ground with Over-The –Top Access Providers making significant head-way during the year
Cable-Telecom companies with underperforming networks will be subject to buy-outs and take-over’s as the industry continues to consolidate and upgrade infrastructures
Verizon (FIOS) will continue to gain market share where rolled-out due to its advanced capabilities for consumers and businesses
The Cable-Telecoms will continue to make their bundles more competitively attractive as they compete for the one-stop-shopping experience

2010 will be all about the customer experience and a continued change in broadband dynamics. The Cable Industry will struggle with a diminishing demand for linear programming, and the success of alternative Over-The-Top models of content access.

Feds Mull Rules, Fees to Spur Net Access (online.wsj.com)
FCC outlines seven biggest barriers to broadband adoption (arstechnica.com)
FCC discusses barriers to national broadband plan (news.cnet.com)
Big cable: move millions from phone subsidies to broadband (arstechnica.com)
Broadband economics: Competition lowers prices (news.cnet.com)

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Net Neutrality’s Increasingly Complex Debate

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At issue, the language the FCC crafted in its proposed rule making, specifically FCC NPRM Paragraph 106 as implicated by Digital Society. (see FCC NPRM prohibits good network management)

“We understand the term (nondiscriminatory) to mean that a broadband Internet access service provider may not charge a content, application, or service provider for enhanced or prioritized access to the subscribers of the broadband Internet access service provider, as illustrated in the diagram below. We propose that this rule would not prevent a broadband Internet access service provider from charging subscribers different prices for different services. We seek comment on each of these proposals. We also seek comment on whether the specific language of this draft rule best serves the public interest.”

The crux of the debate for those seeing paid-peering-agreements as essential to increased participation by innovative content, application, or service providers, whether they be start-ups or seasoned, seem to be an open ended interpretation which would ban prioritization. See (What is true neutrality in the network?)

With the wide range of content flowing through the pipelines, and increasing at a rapid pace, the network cannot become a (dumb pipeline). Network management seems to be an essential characteristic needed to handle the flexibility of constantly differing requirements from Internet users. This is not a linear format with constant speeds and demands.

The network must constantly adjust to those varying needs which may require one user to demand more capacity than others at unique times. This management will not degrade the network for other users. It is a matter of choosing one higher demand over a lower demand without degrading the demand for both. It manages the requirements of each user.

As private networks, ISP‘s should know their responsibilities regarding consumer and commercial traffic, and the management issues of prioritizing. Obviously, paid peering is needed for those whose products depend on increased speed and bandwidth for business survival. The consumer wants the same whether they are streaming movies, or downloading PDF’s or just sending e-mail attachments.

It comes down to understanding how the Internet works regarding network access management capabilities across a wide variety of circumstances and geographical locations. In essence, what will it take for both large and small ISP’s to handle the varying traffic over their networks and upgrading to a standard that reasonably doesn’t degrade the user experience?

Hence, the NCTA’s recent reference to First Amendment issues in discriminating against ISP providers in Paid-Peering Agreements. The FCC should revisit NPRM Paragraph 106 and make sure proposed Net Neutrality rules do not discriminate against one party in favor of another.